The official future is what scenario planners call the future as we expect it
to happen. Other names are the default future or the perceived path of least
resistance because we expect nothing major to change. It is also the least
creative option available to you at any point in time as it allows you to stay
in a comfort zone and not think about more challenging futures, positive or
negative.
The beauty of thinking about scenarios for our future is that they force us
out of the official future and we have to consider other options. The other
options in themselves are not where the real value lies. The value lies in the
process between your current thinking and having arrived at the new
alternatives.
To do this can be hard, because it requires forcing yourself to look at all
the areas of your future where you have doubt and there are unknowns. Facing
this uncertainty and thinking through how you would deal with it, is the only
way to manage it effectively.
It is uncomfortable because it shoves us out of our comfort zone and ensures
we think about change even before it happens. Of course we can resist, but
unfortunately the change happens anyway. The choice is pain up front when you
have the luxury to think about it, or pain in the moment when you are up
against the big uncertainty you hoped would never happen.
The official future applies as much to our business strategies as it does to
our private lives. Believe it at your peril.
