It has become increasingly difficult for us to come to terms with where
computers and the Internet are taking us. I often get asked where I see things
going over the next couple of years. It seems that external forces are tossing
us around beyond control and the pace of change is so fast that we never quite
get to grips with what is happening. This in turn leads to high stress levels
and a general frustration with all technology. I hate stress so have decided
to don the beta version of my futurist cap and take a closer look at where I
think the Internet will take us in the near future.
The first thing that is likely to happen is that corporations are going to
start getting a lot more savvy and imaginative about what they do with this
technology. The days of getting the MD's son or the IS department to whack
together a web site are over. Companies are looking for real utility over the
web and want to get a return on every cent they spend on their website.
The Meta group (one of the computer industry's most respected market research
companies) has just released the results of their survey of American
corporations who have implemented Intranets (computer systems inside their
company using Internet technology). Among other things the report stated that
80% of companies surveyed had achieved an average return on investment of 38%
on their Intranet developments.
I would be interested to see a similar statistics for corporate Internet web
sites. I believe that only those companies who have embraced their web sites
and are working hard to incorporate it into their business will get any return
at all. Those who put together a few pages and waited for the customers to
arrive are probably still waiting.
The website of the future is likely to encompass far more than the desires of
the marketing department. Companies are going to want to use their websites to
compliment their other interactions with clients and business partners. The
drive will be efficiency and a high return on investment. These new look web
sites are going to look more and more like business applications.
In the 1970's the airlines grouped together around one innovator who provided
a central booking system to the industry. Innovative companies in the next few
years are going to steal the market from their competitors by being able to
provide the most functional client interactions over the web. Slow starters
will end up using their competitors systems to carry out their business.
The web will also start to play more of a role in other business applications.
It will not be uncommon to find a web application (or weblication) linking
together bits and pieces of many other systems that already exist in an
organisation. Clever programming will allow customers to update their own
information and get details of previous transactions.
The next thing I think we will see is the demise of the PC in corporations.
Let's face it, these things are expensive to run. I spent a few years working
for a large corporate (for my sins) and was shocked at the amount of
maintenance a PC requires. Thousands of dollars are spent each year just to
keep a PC running, that is over and above the original capital cost which
depreciates faster than you can pay it off.
Network Computers, the new thin clients that have processing power but store
almost nothing locally are likely to start replacing the PC in the near
future. The advantages are numerous not least of which the software that runs
on them is stored centrally, allowing a single administrator to control
upgrades. I remember the poor technicians running around corporate offices
updating PC's. It was a bit like painting the Sydney Harbour Bridge. As soon
as you finish one end you need to start again at the beginning.
I've found that a good rule of thumb when trying to keep up with technology is
to read about the latest developments but only consider implementing something
when it is 3 to 6 months old. Trying to stay on the bleeding edge is - well -
exactly that.
All in all nothing too much to worry about. The secret is not to resist. The
more you resist the more difficult change will be.