connecteddale

Strategy Coach = Clarity + Alignment

Model Thinking

Model thinking runs a decision through several different mental models at once, so you can see where they agree, which raises confidence, and where they clash, which flags real uncertainty.

Five steps carry a real decision through several models in turn, starting with the decision itself and ending with a call made from where the models agree and where they diverge.

1 Take the real decision 2 Apply 3+ models 3 Record each prediction 4 Mark agreement & divergence 5 Decide from the pattern
Running a decision through multiple models before committing.

Reach for this when…

How to run it

  1. Take the real decision or problem in front of you.
  2. Apply at least three genuinely different models to it, not three versions of the same one.
  3. Write down what each model predicts or reveals separately.
  4. Mark where the models agree and where they diverge.
  5. Use the pattern of agreement and divergence to decide, and to know where to watch closely.

A worked example

Situation. Arjun Mehta was deciding whether to expand Setu, his SaaS scheduling tool, from Bengaluru into Hindi-speaking North India, working off a single competitor-comparison spreadsheet.

Applied. He ran the decision through three models: a diffusion-of-innovation view of adoption speed, a network-effects view of switching costs, and a simple unit-economics model of support cost per new region; diffusion and unit-economics both argued for caution, network effects alone argued for speed.

Result. He saw his one confident model was the outlier and slowed the launch by a quarter to fix onboarding cost first. The delayed launch converted at twice the rate.

1 Take the real decision 2 Apply 3+ models 3 Record each prediction 4 Mark agreement & divergence 5 Decide from the pattern
Etienne's expansion call: the divergence step exposed his one outlier model.

The catch

It is easy to run three models badly and call it rigour, when really you have picked three that all agree with your gut. Models simplify by design, so the exercise can manufacture false precision if you forget what each one leaves out. It takes real fluency across models to run this well, which most people do not have.

If every model you chose happens to agree with the decision you already wanted, check which models you left out.

Origin: Scott Page (University of Michigan)