Scenario Planning

In Short

Prepare for multiple futures rather than predicting one
Best for: Scenario planning methodology
Scenario Planning is a structured tool for coaching and facilitation. Prepare for multiple futures rather than predicting one. It provides a repeatable framework that can be adapted to individual, team, and leadership development contexts.
Type of tool: Scenario planning methodology
Expected outcomes:
- Improved ability to prepare for multiple futures rather than predicting one
- A concrete action or development plan to take forward from the Scenario Planning process

In Detail

Scenario Planning is a structured framework designed to help coaches, leaders, and facilitators prepare for multiple futures rather than predicting one. It sits within the category of Scenario planning methodology, making it particularly useful for practitioners working on capability development, team performance, and individual growth in organisational settings.

In practice, Scenario Planning is delivered as a 7-step process. The process begins by define the focal question: what is the key decision or uncertainty you are planning around (5-15 year horizon)? 2. The session closes by test your current strategy against each scenario: where is it robust? Where does it break down? 7. The structured approach ensures that participants move through a consistent experience while leaving room for the facilitator to adapt pacing and depth to the group's needs.

Scenario Planning provides a shared vocabulary that persists beyond the session itself. When team members reference the same model in day-to-day work, coaching outcomes become embedded in practice rather than remaining as isolated insights from a single workshop.

How to Use

1. Define the focal question: what is the key decision or uncertainty you are planning around (5-15 year horizon)? 2. Identify the key driving forces (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal). 3. Rank forces by importance and uncertainty. 4. Select the two most uncertain and most important forces -- these become the axes of a 2x2 matrix. 5. Name and develop four plausible scenarios in the quadrants. 6. Test your current strategy against each scenario: where is it robust? Where does it break down? 7. Identify early warning indicators for each scenario.

Pros and Cons

Pros	Cons
Provides a shared vocabulary that persists after the session and supports ongoing conversations Structured approach ensures consistent application across different cohorts and contexts Directly addresses the challenge of prepare for multiple futures rather than predicting one through a proven conceptual structure	Risk of over-applying the model — not all situations fit neatly into any single framework Conceptual frameworks require skilled facilitation to connect theory to participants' actual work Some models have limited research evidence; practitioners should be transparent about this

Created by Pierre Wack / Royal Dutch Shell (popularised); Herman Kahn (originated)

When to Use

This tool is suited to the following coaching and facilitation contexts:

Context	Relevant
Individual Coaching
Team Coaching
Leadership Development	✓
Facilitation / Workshop
Online / Virtual

This tool also appears in the Strategy Catalog (WESC): Scenario Planning

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