connecteddale

Strategy Coach = Clarity + Alignment

Cynefin Framework

Cynefin sorts a problem into one of five domains by how clear the link between cause and effect actually is, so you stop applying 'best practice' to a mess that really needs experimentation - and admit it when you don't yet know which domain you're in.

The domain itself stays open in a fifth box at the centre, ringed by four labelled quadrants for cause and effect.

Complex clear only in hindsight Complicated knowable with expertise Chaotic no clear cause and effect Clear cause and effect obvious Disorder Cause and effect → Time to decide → unclear clear act now time to think
The five domains, sorted by how clear cause and effect actually is - Disorder sits unresolved in the centre.

Reach for this when…

How to run it

  1. Name the domain: Clear, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, or Disorder.
  2. Clear: apply the known best practice directly.
  3. Complicated: bring in expert analysis before you act.
  4. Complex: run small safe-to-fail experiments and sense what emerges.
  5. Chaotic: act to stabilise first, then diagnose once there's room to think.
  6. Disorder: if the room can't agree which domain you're in, that's the default state - gather more information before choosing an approach.

A worked example

Situation. Olivia Bennett ran Meridian Primary Health, a network of primary-care clinics in Adelaide, Australia, applying the same rollout checklist to a staff retention problem that wouldn't budge.

Applied. Working through Cynefin with her leadership team, they realised retention wasn't Complicated, a known-expert problem, but Complex - no single cause, and only clear looking backward at each departure.

Result. Instead of another top-down policy, she ran small local experiments in three clinics, different shift patterns, different handover routines, and kept only what nurses actually said reduced their exhaustion.

Assumed: Complicated Actual: Complex Cause and effect → Order → unclear clear low high
Cordillera Salud assumed a Complicated problem; retention turned out to be Complex.

The catch

The hard part is the diagnosis, not the response to it - people default to whichever domain matches the tool they already like using, treating Complex problems as Complicated ones because that means hiring an expert instead of sitting with not knowing. Chaotic can also look like Complex from a distance, so the domain call is a judgement, not a measurement.

If everyone in the room agrees immediately which domain you're in, check again - that's usually the Complicated tool being applied out of habit.

Origin: Dave Snowden