Early Warning Scans
Early Warning Scans is a disciplined habit of watching named external sources for weak signals, so a threat or opportunity gets caught while there is still time to act on it, not after it has already landed.
Watch a signal travel through six steps, from first sighting to a lesson filed away.
Reach for this when…
- A regulatory or market shift blindsided you and, in hindsight, the signs were there for months.
- You want risk discussed with more than the annual financial forecast.
- A competitor moved first on something you could have seen coming.
How to run it
- Define the domains to watch: market, regulation, technology, competitors, social.
- Assign a named owner to scan specific sources for each domain.
- Log weak signals as they appear, even ones that seem minor.
- Score each signal for likely impact and likelihood.
- Escalate credible signals to decision-makers with a recommended response.
- After every shock, ask what domain you weren't watching and add it.
A worked example
Situation. Somsak Boonmee runs Boonmee Orchids, a cut-flower export business near Chiang Mai, Thailand, shipping to European wholesalers.
Applied. A fuel surcharge and an EU pesticide rule change hit in the same month because nobody was watching regulatory sources systematically. He assigned a junior staffer to scan EU Official Journal notices and freight indices weekly, logging and scoring what turned up.
Result. The scan caught the next EU pesticide rule change eight months before it took effect. He switched suppliers ahead of the ban and kept contracts that competitors, caught flat-footed, lost.
The catch
Most weak signals go nowhere, so calibrate for a low hit rate - escalate everything and decision-makers stop listening within a quarter. The signal is usually only obvious in hindsight, which makes the scan hard to sell as worth the time until it pays off once. And a scan nobody reads is just a folder.
A scan nobody owns is a filing exercise, not a warning system.
Origin: Igor Ansoff (weak signals)